The news just today has added excellent support material for the thesis that things are changing rapidly. Oil at record highs, Shell and BP profits down, the dollar at record lows against the Euro, and a dire warning from the UN Climate Program regarding the state of the earth's biosphere.
The need for a global transition to sustainable economy and lifestyle is not academic. It is not a novel economic theory with interesting possibilities. It is not a wish list for the worlds progressive movement, and it is not something that can be implemented in incremental steps to satisfy "bottom line preservation". We are no longer looking at the possibilities of climate change and resource scarcity through the window of a generational time line. Events have overtaken us, and we now stand face to face with mankind's greatest challenge, the outcome of which will determine the fate of our global civilization and thousands of species, including our own. And I mean to be a part of the solution.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Rural and the World
All seemed crisp and self illuminated in bright slanted Autumn light. The very rural community of "The Ridge" had gathered in a festival of straw, crafts, Bluegrass and bobbing. Kids in dreads and designer shades. Women, ever attentive to their beauty, adjusting their hemp dresses and amber beads. Men of bright eyes and beards, and everywhere children.
It was one of those festivals that belies reality. It was so perfect in its simplicity, easy going flow, and gentle country nature that it was as if I were living in the description of a screen play scene.
The air was a brazen blue. The muted browns, oranges and sages of the fair goers' clothes were soothing in the harmonious tone they set amidst the "grass green" of the lawn, the deeper green of the surrounding cedar forest, and the varied golds and reds of the cottonwood, aspen and maple.
A mulatto child walked by with an ice cream cone and, atop her hair, a conical Renaissance hat , replete with pink chiffon tassel; her face stunningly beautiful: gentle ebony eyes, lips full and perfect in their symmetry, ...creamy mocha skin. A celebration of innocense and form.
Overhead, a distant white form became illuminated in the bright, unobscurred sun, it's ice crystal trail gleaming with luminescence. Flying at over 40,000 feet above the children, a US Air Force Strato-fortress flew on it's lethal vigil. Armed with technology beyond our common understanding, they preside over our common song. Do they protect or do they observe? Could we have this rural experience without them. Would be know how?
It was one of those festivals that belies reality. It was so perfect in its simplicity, easy going flow, and gentle country nature that it was as if I were living in the description of a screen play scene.
The air was a brazen blue. The muted browns, oranges and sages of the fair goers' clothes were soothing in the harmonious tone they set amidst the "grass green" of the lawn, the deeper green of the surrounding cedar forest, and the varied golds and reds of the cottonwood, aspen and maple.
A mulatto child walked by with an ice cream cone and, atop her hair, a conical Renaissance hat , replete with pink chiffon tassel; her face stunningly beautiful: gentle ebony eyes, lips full and perfect in their symmetry, ...creamy mocha skin. A celebration of innocense and form.
Overhead, a distant white form became illuminated in the bright, unobscurred sun, it's ice crystal trail gleaming with luminescence. Flying at over 40,000 feet above the children, a US Air Force Strato-fortress flew on it's lethal vigil. Armed with technology beyond our common understanding, they preside over our common song. Do they protect or do they observe? Could we have this rural experience without them. Would be know how?
Saturday, October 20, 2007
The Crisis Which Lifts Us All
As the cost of fuel rises, governments will initiate programs to offset costs which the consumers, (voters) can not absorb. On a local level, many communities will turn to mass transit. I was defending the point that our bus manufacturers could not build buses fast enough with a colleague who works for a large municipality. He informed me that many municipalities have large number of buses in the lots that are not put in service. Often it is because drivers are more expensive than buses, and for maintenance rotations, etc. This is wonderful news. Having excess rolling stock for mass transit, even if it puts pressure on the near term, presents another plausible short term solution to the problem of getting to work.
Part of the wonder of how good comes from hardship is community. Take Mary Suburban. She has bailed on her Lexus and is taking the bus to her job downtown. Cringing, she puts her bag lunch into her briefcase, (remembering the Princess Leia lunch box she had in 5th grade) and walks to the corner to catch the bus. As she approaches the bus stop, she sees a small group of people she vaguely recognizes. That "I know I've seen this person before,..but where ?" feeling. Standing awkwardly next to a woman about her age, she is interrupted by the words, "Don't I know you?" Turning, she recognizes the face, but can't place it, when suddenly, both women exclaim at once,...."Oh my god, were neighbors!"
Community will begin. Real time non-virtual networks will begin again, supplementing and adding to our current social fabric. And as dialog, and organic social intercourse begin in neighborhoods, community strength will begin again. This is the antithesis of what those seeking dominant national power, or overlord power, desire. And it is our homecoming. It is our rebirth into something good, and as Sam says in Lord of the Rings, "something worth fight'en for."
Part of the wonder of how good comes from hardship is community. Take Mary Suburban. She has bailed on her Lexus and is taking the bus to her job downtown. Cringing, she puts her bag lunch into her briefcase, (remembering the Princess Leia lunch box she had in 5th grade) and walks to the corner to catch the bus. As she approaches the bus stop, she sees a small group of people she vaguely recognizes. That "I know I've seen this person before,..but where ?" feeling. Standing awkwardly next to a woman about her age, she is interrupted by the words, "Don't I know you?" Turning, she recognizes the face, but can't place it, when suddenly, both women exclaim at once,...."Oh my god, were neighbors!"
Community will begin. Real time non-virtual networks will begin again, supplementing and adding to our current social fabric. And as dialog, and organic social intercourse begin in neighborhoods, community strength will begin again. This is the antithesis of what those seeking dominant national power, or overlord power, desire. And it is our homecoming. It is our rebirth into something good, and as Sam says in Lord of the Rings, "something worth fight'en for."
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
The Money Is Moving
In front of the wave, those that follow money have sensed the change, and are investing in the coming post carbon transition technologies. Some alternative energy and traditional energy companies have seen there value double since July of 2005.
Motley Fool Rule Breaker team is strongly touting the new energy sector plays, stating in their recent newsletter that the coming economic surge in the stocks of these companies may be 10 times (an order of magnitude), maybe 20 times bigger than the Internet. As virtually all of current western life is touched by oil, it's derivative products, or it's energy, I believe they are correct. My friends, this is the wild wild west relived.
The existing financial game is played on a global board with no international rule body to provide boundaries for it. Corporations, banks, investment firms are in new territory, far ahead of the nation states. They are making up the rules as they go, and the rules favor them, period. That's what they do.
Now the energy game is also played 80% on the global board, and again, their are no enforceable rules to play by. That is why we are now seeing resource wars unfolding, ie. Iraq, Darfur, etc. (these are about oil)
The ride now becomes more interesting. There are many sites to provide information and guidance. I will be posting more as I move along on this post.
Namaste,
Caius
Motley Fool Rule Breaker team is strongly touting the new energy sector plays, stating in their recent newsletter that the coming economic surge in the stocks of these companies may be 10 times (an order of magnitude), maybe 20 times bigger than the Internet. As virtually all of current western life is touched by oil, it's derivative products, or it's energy, I believe they are correct. My friends, this is the wild wild west relived.
The existing financial game is played on a global board with no international rule body to provide boundaries for it. Corporations, banks, investment firms are in new territory, far ahead of the nation states. They are making up the rules as they go, and the rules favor them, period. That's what they do.
Now the energy game is also played 80% on the global board, and again, their are no enforceable rules to play by. That is why we are now seeing resource wars unfolding, ie. Iraq, Darfur, etc. (these are about oil)
The ride now becomes more interesting. There are many sites to provide information and guidance. I will be posting more as I move along on this post.
Namaste,
Caius
Monday, October 15, 2007
Financial Security in Turbulent Times
Financial Security in Turbulent Times
“ ‘I wish it need not have happened in my time,’ said Frodo. ‘So do I,’ said Gandalf. ‘And so do all who live to see such times. But it is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.’ ”
J.R.R. Tolkien, “The Lord of the Rings”
We stand at the convergence of 4 epochal events: a global “awakening“ of consciousness, the end of economically viable oil, an alliance for world hegemony between religious, economic and military powers and , lastly, global warming. I call these “The 4 Events” How do we define and achieve material, or ‘financial’ security, success, and abundance in times such as these?
To attain financial well being in the coming times, we need to understand how the convergence of the 4 Events will affect the global game of trade and exchange, i.e. the world financial system. We also need to understand the extent to which we are or are not involved in it, and adjust accordingly. Using dollars, debit cards, driving cars and having a mortgage all are a natural part of living in our times, and yet are vitally intertwined with the global financial game. Because these changes are uncertain however, financial planning for the future needs to remain fluid. The first step is to stay highly informed about the 4 Events, thereby increasing our ability to essentially ‘surf’ the waves of change, rather than be rolled by them.
Many aspect of the global financial game which we now depend on and take for granted may disappear to transform beyond recognition beginning now and continuing over the next twenty years. Peak Oil may have already arrived. To date, the highest level of production of petroleum liquids was in November of 2005. Since then, demand has increase and production has decreased. And are we surprised that we now have oil trading at $80 per barrel? Global warming is now having an effect globally, affecting the economies of many countries. For Australia is having it’s worst drought in history, having to import feed for cattle for the first time in 140 years. So. California is placing economic restrictions on the use of water for 2008 due to draught conditions in the Colorado River. Hundred’s of thousands of acres of temperate rain forest in Alaska have been decimated by the pine bark beetle as the warmer temperatures have allowed it to exist in areas where it previously did not. And this year the fabled Northwest Passage was actually navigable in the high summer months. All of these changes have economic effects and are harbingers of things to come.
So, when we consider wealth, we must view it from a very macro perspective, looking beyond what is common, to what is more conceptual. Wealth may be construed as the amassing of things or agreements which hold value to others within the society. If the conditions of society change, what the society values can rapidly change as well. We must now be prepared to asses what society will hold dear in the coming times.
Long held repositories of ‘wealth’ may soon change. Real estate is only as valuable as the market holds it to be. During the Great Depression, real estate in some areas of America depreciated up to 80%. What if that happens again? Contracts, such as retirement plans, mortgages, mutual funds and stocks only hold value as long as the society will or can enforce the contractual agreements underlying those items. The Enron retirement plan looked fine until the corporation collapsed, and society was unable or unwilling to honor the agreements underlying the retirement plan. It became worthless. A mortgage owed by a sub prime borrower was highly valued by Wall Street in January of this year. Nine months later there are 300 billion dollars worth of these mortgages which essentially have no value. You can not give them away. The paper contractual agreements many now own could radically deflate in value, ruining the lives of millions of “middle class” folk. We all need to asses if the wealth we hold in contractual agreements will endure the strains placed on both nation states and economies during the 4 Events.
Money in the form of fiat currency is a universally accepted contract within a society as a means of transferring value. Take out a dollar bill and hold it. Five years ago you could buy a Euro for about 90 cents. You could buy an espresso in Paris for less than a buck. Now it takes about $1.40 to buy a Euro. The cost of that espresso just went up by 50%. Has the espresso become more flavorful or better made? No. The dollar bill in your hand is now worth about half of what it was worth just 5 years ago. Now, consider how the Chinese feel, who are sitting on over 1 trillion of these little green puppies. Recent news indicates that more countries are considering unhinging their currencies from the dollar, thus further weakening the perceived value of the green piece of paper called the “dollar”.
Owning dollars, and investments that are denominated in dollars, is probably on the wrong side of the profit trend for the foreseeable future. Place part of your assets in a foreign currency. Google foreign currency CD’s. There are banks that offer federally insured CD’s that are denominated in foreign currencies. Consider owning real estate in another country. The Canadian dollar has doubled in value against the US dollar. I hear British Columbia is pretty, and Montreal has great shopping!
We have all noticed the increase in the rise of the cost of oil. I encourage everyone to Google Peak Oil, and learn about the very well researched argument that the world is reaching it’s geological limit in the amount of economically feasible oil that can be produced. Consider that all the alternative energy available in the world, if it was available 24/7, would amount to only 3% of all the energy used by the global economy and a picture emerges. The predictions regarding the effect of Peak Oil range from nil to global economic collapse. However, if we are at or near Peak Oil, then we face a social and economic cataclysm without precedent.
A society’s ability to react to the effects of global warming will take massive amounts of energy and money. The energy may not be available, and the money may have to come at the expense of everything else. If the sea levels rise by a meter, then the Sacramento Delta will be flooded with salt water, and the delta fresh water will no longer be available to Southern California’s agriculture, industry or residential use. There goes the 7th largest economy in the world, and we have just started the list.
Typically, a government has two actions available to it to address social needs which are very expensive. One is to use available resources i.e. Cash by restrain spending on other economic priorities and raising taxes. This historically has almost never been done due to the political difficulty. The second is to create money to spend. This dilution of the currency devalues the currency and causes high inflation. If the US government disavows sacrifice and instead chooses to create more money to address the pending problems once they arrive, then the value of the dollar will plummet to unseen lows. This will be a Rubicon moment. Watch for it.
Regarding traditional investments, during the transition, commodities such as oil, currencies and gold can produce fortunes, but one has to be correct in the timing of the investment, and the risk is high. One can also buy stock in companies that are part of the solution. The alternative energy industry is growing and diversifying rapidly. Silicon Valley is making renewable energy it’s new mantra. What do these venture capitalists know that most of us do not? Many of the newer companies in this field are as yet not publicly traded, but as they grow, that changes. It is often that you get a more ethical and less corrupt opportunity of investment at the smaller levels of corporate capitalization. Small companies are below the thieves’ radar.
Wealth should now include those things which will sustain you and your community, and have value in your bio region. Delving deeper into wealth alternatives, there are groups (Solari on the net is one) that are coming together in many communities to address these issues. Most are based on creating a community based economic system which is separate from the main stream systems. Community currency and bartering systems are being created. These may provide a base of economic security. However, with 6 billion people on the planet now playing more or less the same global financial game, barter and community currency will probably be a local survival method, yet not be a method for creating or maintaining wealth.
Investigate, read and learn in these beginning times. The cost of being unprepared is great. Seek out alternatives and ask the questions. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.
“ ‘I wish it need not have happened in my time,’ said Frodo. ‘So do I,’ said Gandalf. ‘And so do all who live to see such times. But it is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.’ ”
J.R.R. Tolkien, “The Lord of the Rings”
We stand at the convergence of 4 epochal events: a global “awakening“ of consciousness, the end of economically viable oil, an alliance for world hegemony between religious, economic and military powers and , lastly, global warming. I call these “The 4 Events” How do we define and achieve material, or ‘financial’ security, success, and abundance in times such as these?
To attain financial well being in the coming times, we need to understand how the convergence of the 4 Events will affect the global game of trade and exchange, i.e. the world financial system. We also need to understand the extent to which we are or are not involved in it, and adjust accordingly. Using dollars, debit cards, driving cars and having a mortgage all are a natural part of living in our times, and yet are vitally intertwined with the global financial game. Because these changes are uncertain however, financial planning for the future needs to remain fluid. The first step is to stay highly informed about the 4 Events, thereby increasing our ability to essentially ‘surf’ the waves of change, rather than be rolled by them.
Many aspect of the global financial game which we now depend on and take for granted may disappear to transform beyond recognition beginning now and continuing over the next twenty years. Peak Oil may have already arrived. To date, the highest level of production of petroleum liquids was in November of 2005. Since then, demand has increase and production has decreased. And are we surprised that we now have oil trading at $80 per barrel? Global warming is now having an effect globally, affecting the economies of many countries. For Australia is having it’s worst drought in history, having to import feed for cattle for the first time in 140 years. So. California is placing economic restrictions on the use of water for 2008 due to draught conditions in the Colorado River. Hundred’s of thousands of acres of temperate rain forest in Alaska have been decimated by the pine bark beetle as the warmer temperatures have allowed it to exist in areas where it previously did not. And this year the fabled Northwest Passage was actually navigable in the high summer months. All of these changes have economic effects and are harbingers of things to come.
So, when we consider wealth, we must view it from a very macro perspective, looking beyond what is common, to what is more conceptual. Wealth may be construed as the amassing of things or agreements which hold value to others within the society. If the conditions of society change, what the society values can rapidly change as well. We must now be prepared to asses what society will hold dear in the coming times.
Long held repositories of ‘wealth’ may soon change. Real estate is only as valuable as the market holds it to be. During the Great Depression, real estate in some areas of America depreciated up to 80%. What if that happens again? Contracts, such as retirement plans, mortgages, mutual funds and stocks only hold value as long as the society will or can enforce the contractual agreements underlying those items. The Enron retirement plan looked fine until the corporation collapsed, and society was unable or unwilling to honor the agreements underlying the retirement plan. It became worthless. A mortgage owed by a sub prime borrower was highly valued by Wall Street in January of this year. Nine months later there are 300 billion dollars worth of these mortgages which essentially have no value. You can not give them away. The paper contractual agreements many now own could radically deflate in value, ruining the lives of millions of “middle class” folk. We all need to asses if the wealth we hold in contractual agreements will endure the strains placed on both nation states and economies during the 4 Events.
Money in the form of fiat currency is a universally accepted contract within a society as a means of transferring value. Take out a dollar bill and hold it. Five years ago you could buy a Euro for about 90 cents. You could buy an espresso in Paris for less than a buck. Now it takes about $1.40 to buy a Euro. The cost of that espresso just went up by 50%. Has the espresso become more flavorful or better made? No. The dollar bill in your hand is now worth about half of what it was worth just 5 years ago. Now, consider how the Chinese feel, who are sitting on over 1 trillion of these little green puppies. Recent news indicates that more countries are considering unhinging their currencies from the dollar, thus further weakening the perceived value of the green piece of paper called the “dollar”.
Owning dollars, and investments that are denominated in dollars, is probably on the wrong side of the profit trend for the foreseeable future. Place part of your assets in a foreign currency. Google foreign currency CD’s. There are banks that offer federally insured CD’s that are denominated in foreign currencies. Consider owning real estate in another country. The Canadian dollar has doubled in value against the US dollar. I hear British Columbia is pretty, and Montreal has great shopping!
We have all noticed the increase in the rise of the cost of oil. I encourage everyone to Google Peak Oil, and learn about the very well researched argument that the world is reaching it’s geological limit in the amount of economically feasible oil that can be produced. Consider that all the alternative energy available in the world, if it was available 24/7, would amount to only 3% of all the energy used by the global economy and a picture emerges. The predictions regarding the effect of Peak Oil range from nil to global economic collapse. However, if we are at or near Peak Oil, then we face a social and economic cataclysm without precedent.
A society’s ability to react to the effects of global warming will take massive amounts of energy and money. The energy may not be available, and the money may have to come at the expense of everything else. If the sea levels rise by a meter, then the Sacramento Delta will be flooded with salt water, and the delta fresh water will no longer be available to Southern California’s agriculture, industry or residential use. There goes the 7th largest economy in the world, and we have just started the list.
Typically, a government has two actions available to it to address social needs which are very expensive. One is to use available resources i.e. Cash by restrain spending on other economic priorities and raising taxes. This historically has almost never been done due to the political difficulty. The second is to create money to spend. This dilution of the currency devalues the currency and causes high inflation. If the US government disavows sacrifice and instead chooses to create more money to address the pending problems once they arrive, then the value of the dollar will plummet to unseen lows. This will be a Rubicon moment. Watch for it.
Regarding traditional investments, during the transition, commodities such as oil, currencies and gold can produce fortunes, but one has to be correct in the timing of the investment, and the risk is high. One can also buy stock in companies that are part of the solution. The alternative energy industry is growing and diversifying rapidly. Silicon Valley is making renewable energy it’s new mantra. What do these venture capitalists know that most of us do not? Many of the newer companies in this field are as yet not publicly traded, but as they grow, that changes. It is often that you get a more ethical and less corrupt opportunity of investment at the smaller levels of corporate capitalization. Small companies are below the thieves’ radar.
Wealth should now include those things which will sustain you and your community, and have value in your bio region. Delving deeper into wealth alternatives, there are groups (Solari on the net is one) that are coming together in many communities to address these issues. Most are based on creating a community based economic system which is separate from the main stream systems. Community currency and bartering systems are being created. These may provide a base of economic security. However, with 6 billion people on the planet now playing more or less the same global financial game, barter and community currency will probably be a local survival method, yet not be a method for creating or maintaining wealth.
Investigate, read and learn in these beginning times. The cost of being unprepared is great. Seek out alternatives and ask the questions. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.
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